Oil is extremely cheap

Arab Light oil fell to $27/bbl today, even as gold rose to $1108/oz. In terms of gold, oil has only rarely been this cheap.

The chart above shows the ratio of gold prices to oil prices. Today, one ounce of gold buys you almost 40 barrels of oil. That's only happened twice in the past 45 years (July '73 and July '86). In both instances, oil quickly rebounded.

The chart above shows that, in relation to other things (using the CPI as a proxy for the price of "other things"), oil is still above its all-time lows, but it is back to the levels that prevailed during the late 1980s and early 1990s, and it has fallen by a staggering 79% from its 2011 highs. This is the biggest percentage decline in oil prices to ever happen in the space of 14 months.

OPEC is refusing to cut back its oil production in order to preserve its market share, but U.S. producers have responded aggressively to collapsing prices. As the chart above shows, the active oil drilling rig count in the U.S. has plunged by two-thirds in the past 14 months. This implies a significant reduction in expected oil supplies, at the same time as consumers have responded by driving more (vehicle miles driven in the most recent 12 months are up 3.5% over year-ago levels, the first increase in 9 years). I think it's safe to say that it won't be long before oil prices rebound.

Oil prices are sending a powerful message to producers and consumers: produce less and consume more. Markets sometimes take awhile to fully respond to dramatic changes in prices, but they don't take forever.